first of all, I've been really impressed by obama over the past couple of months -- especially in terms of his temperament. I always knew he was a smart guy, but the coolness under fire is what won him the election. we needed a calm, smart guy, not a hothead. obama delivered.
also, his campaign was meticulously prosecuted. he made one mistake -- the clinging to guns comment -- in 21 months. and he had no margin for error: one slip-up and he would have been finished. so, he took a split second longer than his opponents to answer questions. but that little extra contemplation, combined with his remarkable candlepower, made him a nearly perfect candidate. really amazing.
also worth noting, that speech he gave was the most deliberative and somber acceptance speech I've ever seen. but it worked. it really does seem sometimes like this guy has perfect pitch. plus how can you not love the tableau of the obama family and the biden family up on stage together?
now for the more troubling aspects. first, while the final numbers aren't in, it looks like the popular vote will be about a 4-5 point margin. that means that the polls did indeed inflate obama's support. the average of the polls going in was 6-8 percent. some had it as high as 11 points. either way, it looks like there was some inflation. the undecideds must have gone mccain at a rate of about 70%. that accounts for 1 point of the inflation, but all the rest has to be some kind of bradley effect.
the other thing I have to get on the record -- because no one will take my op-ed -- is that the obama election may cause serious blowback against affirmative action and other issues of racial justice. I suspect we'll hear a lot of, "we've got a black president -- how can you say there's racism in america?" obama may actually have the skills to get us through that kind of misunderstanding, but it still worries me.
